After starting 11-2 in the non-conference, the Orange had put itself in position to make the tournament and after last year had built up goodwill and shown the program could bounce back from what was undoubtedly a down year. But after a 1-4 start to the ACC schedule that goodwill has all but faded, with fans anxious and wondering whether Central New York is destined to host NIT games for the second straight year. The Orange is in trouble, let’s not sugar coat it. but for now it’s not dead. At least not yet. There is still hope alive for this team to make a run to the tournament.

First, the immediate schedule for the Orange is soft. Between now and the end of the month the Orange faces winless-in-the-ACC Pitt twice and two teams who are certainly in the bottom half of the ACC in Boston College and Georgia Tech. If the Orange can pull off four wins, the team may be “on track” so to speak with a 5-4 record in conference play and 16 wins overall heading into February.

The problem with this is that there is very little wiggle room, and the Orange has consistently played in ugly, close games which have the potential to get mucked up and lost. Check the Notre Dame game on January 6th. If the Orange loses one of these games, there may still be potential to get into the tournament. With more than one loss in these four games, the tournament hopes may be dashed.

Second, the February schedule is very tough. In the month of February, the Orange has five games against teams currently in the top 25, plus a road game at Louisville who is currently outside the top 25. This is a negative in many ways, but it also presents an opportunity. To this point, the Orange has four top 100 KenPom wins— Maryland (41), Virginia Tech (48), Buffalo (86), and Georgetown (98)— but none are particularly great and none would qualify as a “category 1” win in the new NCAA Tournament guidelines. So February is the Orange’s chance to make up ground. Virginia, UNC and Clemson are all currently ranked, and come to the Dome. Ken Pomeroy once told me a win at Cameron Indoor is “a golden ticket” for a bubble team, and the Orange will have that chance. We saw last year that even a down team can get up and win a few games on their home court, the Orange will need that this year.

Third, this team has no true bad losses yet this year. Sure, there are games you’d like to have back. Like allowing 60 points in 45 minutes to St. Bonaventure and losing. Or losing to Notre Dame down their two best players. Or losing that heart breaker double overtime game in Tallahassee when you had a wide open look at the end of the first overtime. But none of those are bad losses. The worst loss of the year, according to KenPom, is Wake Forest, and even the Demon Deacons are a top-100 team by KenPom’s metrics.

So while this team has put itself in a precarious position losing three games it easily could have won and starting the ACC schedule 1-4, the season is far from over. Four wins would put the Orange back in the mix. A win or two over a team they shouldn’t beat in February will push them further in the tournament field. It may be doom and gloom as losers of four in a row, but get back to me on February 1st.