t’s easy to look at the Yankees and say they have been carried by their offense. It’s the sexy part of the game. You know, “chicks dig the long ball.” Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorious, Gary Sanchez, and yes even with his slow start Giancarlo Stanton, are all captivating to watch. But in this stretch when the Yankees have torn through teams potential AL playoff teams, winning 13 of 15 against the Blue Jays, Twins, Angels and Astros. In that stretch, the Yankees have outscored opponents by a score of 88-36. That means on average they’ve scored 5.9 runs per game in this stretch (that’s good), while limiting teams to 2.4 runs per game (that’s very good).
This run has clearly been about pitching. While pitcher wins can be a flawed measure, Yankee pitchers have accounted for 7 wins in the 13 overall wins in this stretch— keep in mind the Yankees won one game on a walkoff, one in extra innings, and were shutdown by Justin Verlander in another until the 9th— what that does show however is that the Yankee starters are going deeper into games and giving the offense a chance to get going and put them ahead.
The reality of this season is, the offense is only going to get better from here out. Stanton is going to hit more home runs. Greg Bird is going to produce more than Tyler Austin if he remains healthy. Gleyber Torres will produce far more from 2nd base than Tyler Wade did in the first month of the year. But the Yankees will need the pitching to continue to perform at or above expectations.
Coming into this season there were questions about the rotation. Would Severino be able to maintain his near Cy Young winning level on the mound? Will this be the year Tanaka’s elbow explodes and he needs Tommy John? When will CC’s knee act up, and what kind of issues will that lead to? Would Sonny Gray be the #2 starter the Yankees thought they were getting or is he going to struggle in his first full year in the Bronx?
Each spot in the rotation had a question, and at least through the rotation three times in this stretch, everything seems to have gone right. Severino was masterful, throwing a complete game shutout on Wednesday night. Gray had far and away his best start of the year throwing 6 innings of 2 run ball Monday night. CC has allowed 1 earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts against the Twins and Angels. And Montgomery got the 9 game winning streak started with 6 innings of 1 run ball against Toronto. Of course, it’ll be more difficult for the Yankees to maintain this with Montgomery going down with an injury in his last start Tuesday night.
The Yankees are a playoff team, partially because of their offense but also partially because there are only 5 or 6 teams that look good enough to make the playoffs in the American League. But the biggest weakness the Yankees have, and this has been known since the offseason, is the starting rotation. This may be less important as the weather warms up and some of those long fly balls start finding the Yankee Stadium seats, but the pitching will still need to hold up over the long term.
This week, the Yankees have seen up close and personal how good the Astros starting pitching can be. Even while missing Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton beating up on Dallas Keuchel a bit, Justin Verlander threw 8 shutout innings while striking out 14 and Charlie Morton went 7 and 2/3 striking out 10. While the Yankees took three out of four in Houston, you have to consider whether their starting pitching will truly hold up again in a playoff series.
Considering the questions this offseason, it is a little surprising to see how good the starting pitching has been thus far. You knew the offense would be very good, you knew the bullpen would be tops in the league. But the rotation was filled with questions. With Montgomery’s injury, another question pops up. Where is the depth this year? Chance Adams has taken a step back at Triple-A, Justus Sheffield is just now getting to Triple-A. The spot starts would come from Luis Cessa, but he’s hurt. So the Yankees are staring at Domingo German filling the void first. Maybe the Yankees make a trade, but it’s fair to wonder who they are willing to part with considering they didn’t get Gerrit Cole this winter.
Through this run, the starting pitching has been very good. Certainly better than expected. But to maintain success through September, and ultimately October, Yankees starters will need to continue pitching above expectations.