1) Who has more to gain tonight from a legacy standpoint, Tom Brady or Matt Ryan?
Ty Butler: Probably the most enticing storyline of tonight is that of Tom Brady overcoming legacy-tainting allegations to win his record-setting fifth Super Bowl and being handed the trophy by Roger Goodell. It’s the ending most objective observers thirst for. But Matt Ryan can quench the thirst of subjective fans by taking down Tom Brady, who many loathe. He can also thrust himself into the conversation of being an elite quarterback, which is why he has the most to gain tonight. Ryan is one with the requisite regular season stats of a Top-5 caliber QB, but was devoid of the postseason success needed to elevate him. After knocking out Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers (two champions), Matty Ice can put an end to the Brady revenge tour and become the first player since Kurt Warner to win the MVP and a SB in the same season. Warner did it back in 1999. So Ryan is 60 minutes from accomplishing a feat even the great Tom Brady hasn’t done.
Seth Goldberg: Win or lose, Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time. Can he become the first to win 5 rings? Of course. But it doesn’t change the legacy. Matt Ryan has a chance to put his stamp on the league. Since 2000, the NFL MVP has not won the Super Bowl in that same season. Ryan can change that with a win, and add to a growing resume that he has built. Maybe it isn’t a “legacy” thing with Ryan just yet, he’s still got years left to write the story, but winning the Super Bowl can absolutely change the perception of Ryan around the league and with fans.
Boy Green: I refuse to provide a cop-out answer, but there’s a legitimate argument for both sides. Although I would lean towards Tom Brady in this argument. Arguably he’s one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. The preemptive words are “he’s one of”, that argument is null and void if he wins an unprecedented fifth championship. Although from multiple perspectives I hope this doesn’t come to fruition. First off as my nickname indicates (Boy Green) I’m a die hard New York Jets fan, so seeing the New England Patriots hoist up another Lombardi would initiate my gag reflex immediately. Plus as a radio head, I like having those evergreen arguments. You can argue a slew of quarterbacks in the history of football who you think is No. 1. Brady has the chance to separate himself from the rest of the pack. He already has the prerequisite stats of the upper echelon quarterbacks in league history. With one more world championship he will be considered the greatest quarterback to ever grace a field.
2) Who are the X-factors for both teams?
TB: Devonta Freeman helped the Falcons’ prolific offense this year end the season with the eighth-highest scoring average in NFL history. They had the 5th best rushing attack in the league. If Freeman can become a consistent rushing threat tonight, this will prevent the Patriots’ No. 1 scoring defense from playing solely Cover-2. They’d have to commit more guys to defending the run, which would open up the passing lanes for not just the Ryan-Julio Jones combo, but for Mohamed Sanu as well.
LaGarrette Blount has had a relatively quiet playoffs after becoming the first Patriot to rush for over 1,000 yards since Stevan Ridley did so back in 2012. He’ll be the key for New England tonight against a young Falcons defense that will attempt to follow the Giants’ SB winning blueprint of getting to Brady with a four-man rush. If the Pats can establish the running game, it will force the hand of Dan Quinn to load the box. Advantage Brady.
SG: For the Falcons, the X-Factor is the front four. That’s a bit of a cop-out by not choosing one singular player, but the key to beating the Patriots is getting some pressure on Tom Brady without having to blitz. If you blitz, Brady will find the soft spots in the defense. If you don’t pressure Brady, he’ll pick you apart because he’ll have all day to dissect the defense.
For the Patriots, an X-factor might be Martellus Bennett. We know the Falcons defense struggles against the pass, allowing more than 4200 passing yards this year. Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan have had success all year at the wide receiver position, but can Bennett be successful tonight at tight end? When he’s “on” he’s one of the best pass catching tight ends in the league. With success, Bennett can lessen the load and open things up for a deep threat to Hogan or Edelman.
BG: In a game that will be defined by offensive output, that narrative feeds into both X-factors. For the New England Patriots their hopes rely on that of their former Super Bowl hero, Malcolm Butler. He has the most difficult task of this Super Bowl, defending arguably the most dangerous wide receiver in all of football. As we know from the Patriots history on defending the opponents top option, he won’t have to do it alone. The Patriots have historically done a bracket coverage on the opposing team’s number one receiver (ie Antonio Brown in the AFC Championship game). But they won’t be able to do that this time around without leaving another Falcons weapon in one-on-one coverage. Atlanta just has too many weapons for the Patriots to stop just one man. So Butler is going to have to prove he’s the shutdown corner he’s claimed to be.
On Atlanta’s side, the offense is going to get theirs with NFL MVP Matt Ryan at the helm. Which means it’s going to come down to what defense can get the most stops in this game. The Falcons speed and athleticism on defense should be able to matchup up well against the Patriots bevy of weapons. Vic Beasley led the league in sacks and could cause a game changing play at any moment. While at all levels you have play-makers: Deion Jones and Keanu Neal the top two picks for the Falcons this year were in the running for Defensive Rookie of the Year, they need to step up. If the Falcons can get a handful of stops throughout the game, Atlanta will pull the upset.
3) Who wins and why?
TB: Falcons 34. Patriots 27. The Atlanta defense has struggled for the entirety of the season. But during the team’s six-game win streak, it’s surrendering a shade under 20 points per game. Atlanta is 7-1 since the bye week. This offense will click and the defense will make enough plays to stymie Brady scoring drives.
SG: Patriots 24 Falcons 20. Lost in the offensive success that Tom Brady and the Patriots have had over the last 15 years is that Bill Belichick is one of the great defensive minds of all time. In each of his Super Bowl appearances, he has kept the opposing offense relatively in check, and has played a low scoring game. Remember, Belichick has already slowed two of the greatest offenses of all time– the Bills “K-Gun” and the Rams “Greatest Show On Turf”– in Super Bowls. He’ll do it again tonight.
BG: I’m buying into the narrative, this is going to be a high flying affair. Make sure your seat belt is buckled because there’s going to be scoring early and often in Super Bowl 51. Whoever has the ball last could very well win this game. My scoring prediction all week has been the same: 38-31 the Falcons outlast the Patriots in one of the most exciting Super Bowls of the 21st century.
4) Who will be the Super Bowl MVP?
TB: Matty Ice receives his well-deserved coronation after a great season is culminated with a Super Bowl victory. He throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns and leads his team to its first championship in franchise history.
SG: Tom Brady is your Super Bowl MVP. It’s so difficult for a player other than the quarterback of the winning team to win the MVP. If Brady puts up a respectable game, the MVP is all his.